The NFL season kicked off this year with the Dallas Cowboys traveling to take on the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. Millions of Americans not only tuned in but also had a financial incentive in the outcome.
Expert NFL Betting Advice
Sports betting is now legal in 38 states, as well as Washington D.C., and the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico. In 2024, regulated sports betting operators in the U.S. generated a record-breaking revenue of $13.78 billion, a 24.8% increase from 2023.
Plenty of Americans are betting, but what are some of the best strategies to win a few bucks as the NFL season gets underway? What should you keep in mind when looking at the matchups? Here are a few quick tips to keep in mind when betting on that cell phone or heading to the local casino sportsbook.
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Injuries and Betting Line Movement
Know what you’re getting into when heading to the book. What is the line, and has there been any movement? Are there key injuries that are worth considering when it comes to that big Monday night matchup? These types of considerations may be the difference between a winning and losing selection.
“Understand the importance of line movement,” says Val Martinez, CEO at Bettingladies.com, which caters to women looking to learn more about sports wagering. “There is usually a reason the lines moved. The sportsbooks may want you to go one way or the other, or there may be a ton of money on one side of the bet. Follow line movements and understand why they are moving the way they are.
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“Follow the injury report. Obviously, you will be less likely to bet the Kansas City Chiefs at -1 if you find out that a strong player is out. A common bettor will see the numbers and think, ‘Oh wow, this looks great,’ and then find out after the fact that the most valuable player is going to miss the game. That’s a big deal. Follow injuries and follow team news before you make the bet.”
Follow the Data & Key Positions
It’s never been easier to find unlimited statistics, trends, and other key information to help make the best handicapping decisions. Look for key metrics, such as offensive and defensive statistics. In essence, betting on the NFL is a numbers game, and modern technology and data can help.
“Stats and data – data does not lie and the NFL has plenty of it,” says Bob Bilbruck, the CEO of Captjur. The tech firm is launching an app called Tailgamers, which helps bettors make more AI-knowledge-based bets. Apps like Tailgamers can help you turn these huge data lakes into massive wins. “This data, when used properly with AI, can give you big insight into who is going to do what and what teams might excel and win.”
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Focusing on some key positions can also help. Quarterback numbers are important, but also consider the performance of the offensive and defensive lines. Is that O-line providing a solid running game while limiting sacks? Can those edge rushers on the home team get after an opposing quarterback? These are the types of questions to consider.
Trend Tracking
Some continuing game trends and scenarios can really play off for bettors and provide an edge for a particular team. Look for key elements like travel, scheduling, and other factors that might help secure a betting slip.
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“Road underdogs, especially in the early weeks, tend to offer good value,” Martinez says. “Some say that cross-country travel for early kickoffs has historically hurt teams; prime-time home games often give the home team an extra boost.”
Be Selective
The sportsbook simply offers a ton of wagering opportunities – from traditional game betting lines to props to parlays to everything in between. Becoming an action junkie may not be good for your bankroll.
Handicapping the entire NFL schedule each week and making bets on them all is probably not a good idea. Instead, follow the “less is more” theory and look for a few key matchups that you have a good feeling about. Have a simple goal of finding a winning week based on the matchups you really feel positive about.
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It’s also important to keep emotion out of those selections. You may be a huge Cowboys fan, but if things aren’t looking good against the Eagles, being a homer could lead to a losing proposition.
Skip the Parlays
With the advent of online betting, parlays have become extremely popular. A parlay is a multileg wager that all have to come through for a bettor to win. These offer some extra bang for the buck, with increased payouts because of longer odds and some jaw-dropping cash for some of the bigger parlays.
However, as most bettors know, winning on one game isn’t always easy, much less hitting on three, four, five, or more selections. And the sportsbooks know this. A recent report noted that these multileg wagers significantly contribute to operators’ profits, more so than single bets.
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The Wall Street Journal reported that 27% of cash wagered in Illinois, New Jersey, and Colorado through October 2024 came from parlays. That’s a surge of just 5% since 2021, but parlays accounted for 56% of revenue after payouts, jumping 6% since 2021.
“Multileg bets are so lucrative that FanDuel parent company Flutter Entertainment recently increased its expectation for total online gambling revenues in the U.S. to $63 billion by 2030, up from its estimate of $40 billion two years ago, driven in part by parlays,” the Journalreported.
That 56% of revenue comes from losing bets. Instead of booking a parlay, look for solid matchups that you feel good about and book them individually. When heading to the betting window or wagering online, skip the parlays.
Trust Your Instincts
The world is full of those claiming to have the best system for selecting games. However, the simple fact is that there is a winner and a loser, and plenty of those guys will get things wrong as well. There may be some handicappers you may trust and want to get some opinions from, but also trust your own process. That’s not only part of the process, but also part of the fun.
Look at the matchups and consider all the elements that might affect the outcome and make your own picks. If things don’t go as planned, review your results to identify any potential areas for improvement.
Create a weekly log to keep track of your own trends and results throughout the season. Make adjustments as needed to reverse any downswings.
Set Simple Goals for NFL Betting
There’s a sports betting “expert” around every corner, but the simple fact is that predicting the future is never easy. Understand that variance plays a significant role, and upsets do indeed happen.
For example, the Circa Survivor points to just how difficult picking games can be. The Las Vegas-based sports handicapping contest features players ponying up $1,000 and each player picking one team each week to win, not even against the spread, for 20 weeks throughout the season.
Sounds easy enough, right? Not so much. The 2024-25 season commenced with 14,266 entries, resulting in a $14.26 million prize pool. But of those, just 642 remained after the third week of action, after a string of early upsets. The vast majority couldn’t make it through three weeks!
This illustrates the challenges of NFL betting and the inherent variance that can be involved in making predictions. Understand that losses will occur, so instead, focus on simply hitting a winning week. Finishing a game or two up each week can be a nice goal and bring some winnings in the long run.
Stay Within Your Limits
As with all gaming, playing responsibly is a must. Don’t wager cash that could better be used to pay the rent or invest in college funds. Gambling should be viewed as entertainment, and betting within your own budget is always advisable.
Today’s online sportsbooks offer players the chance to wager just a few dollars on a game. The platforms also feature responsible gaming tools to limit your deposits and play. Take advantage of these to set some boundaries.
Football is the biggest season on the sports betting calendar, with the NFL alone accounting for up to 70% of some sportsbooks’ annual total wagers. Plenty of bettors will be glued to the TV all season long. With the season officially underway, good luck placing your own bets, and hopefully, a winning season will be coming your way.
If you have a genuine concern about excessive betting, consider seeking help. Some great resources include the National Council on Problem Gambling (1-800-GAMBLER) and Gamblers Anonymous.
